The art of thinking clearly《清醒思考的藝術》

 

The art of thinking clearly《清醒思考的藝術》By Rolf Dobelli, English translation by Nicky Griffin

(link to Amazon)

Just read the preface and the 5 chapters free from Amazon. The author Rolf Dobelli, an interlecture and a friend of Nassim Taleb - author of the Black Swan, shares his personal collection of wits with us that was not meant to be publiched originally.

I think unlike laws and engineering are to be "practiced", art isn't one. So to think clearly should not be following someone else's 52 laws to check (there are 52 chapters in the book). Instead it is a good habit to develop a personal wits and rules as one grows to be a better person.

Below are just my takes on the free chapters. But anyone can read it diferently.

1. Survivorship bias – why you should visit cemeteries

Survivorship bias means this: people systematically overestimate their chances of success. Guard against it by frequently visiting the grave of once-promising projects, investment, and careers. It is a sad walk but one that should clear your mind.

幸存者的偏見 - 高估了成功率。往往大家看到的是成功的少數，而忽略了一堆失敗的例子。新聞會去報導有人中了樂透，而沒有人會去關注中獎的機率極低，這就是幸存者的偏見。

2. Swimmer’s Body Illusion – does Harvard make you smarter?

Smart people go to Harvard, cosmetic models are selected for their beauty and it was before they use the products.

倒因為果 - 進名校很重要的是跟同儕切磋，而不是鶴立雞群自覺優秀。作者的問題"哈佛讓你更聰明嗎?"答案當然是yes. 常在野外林子裡一群高聳的樹木，為了陽光，既使不是高大的樹種，在這裡也努力的長高。

3. Clustering Illusion – why you see shapes in the clouds

Regain your skepticism. The clouds do not have shapes. It is your mind that creates the illusion.

日有所思，夜有所夢。心想事成 - 情人眼裡出西施。西施存在情人的眼裡是如此的真實，你能說她不存在嗎?

4. Social Proof – if fifty million people say something foolish

Human is a social animal. It is hard to run against it. However, when it comes right or wrong, makes your own judgement not what people says.

人云亦云，從眾心理 - 網路上這問題尤其嚴重。很多未經驗證的瞬間變成了事實。

5. Sunk cost fallacy – why you should forget the past.

A sunk cost is money that has already been spent and cannot be recovered. No matter how much you’ve invested, only the future costs and benefits counts.

覆水難收，壯士斷腕 – 這裡主要在講買股的成本跟持有續抱的決定無關。

中文有很多成語包含了這些人生的智慧，斷腕哪有這麼容易，就因為不容易所以才叫壯士!