Cupertino Cycling - Seven Springs Loop Trail

 

On the Google Maps (link), there is a place called Seven Springs Loop Trail. It looks like a good vista point. I first rode up to Upland Way from Bubb Rd. Hit the dead end. Then I back off, took the Regnatt Rd. Same thing. There are trail head lookalike, but with private property post. Anyway, this is a good ride. About 16km total, and 228m total ascent.

Back home, I asked Gemini. It says:

Yes, the Seven Springs Loop Trail is accessible to the public. It is located within the Fremont Older Open Space Preserve, which is managed by the Midpeninsula Regional Open Space District.

The trail can be accessed from the Prospect Road parking lot (Maps), and while parking is free, it can be limited and fill up quickly, especially on weekends.

I think I would need to come back next time from the right side.

Made the second attemp from Prospect Rd.

Reached Prospect Road Parking (below). This is where you can access the Fremont Old Open Space.

However I continued upward. It is part paved and part gravel. Not well maintained. Finally reached the end of road. The sign says 0.6Mile to Regnart Rd and 2Mile to Stevens Creek Co. Park. But there is a no bike sign. I have to turn back.

San Jose Cycling - Bay Trail

 

Technically speaking this is Sunnyvale and San Jose border (above). 

Previously we've been Bay Trail in Mountain View section, close to the Shortline (Link). Here you can see NASA (the doom on the left) and Google on the right (picture below). However when we reached the Golf Club at Moffett Field, we found there is no access to the public roads. Two choices, one is continue east, the other is heading back. To be safe, we took the latter.

Back home we found out the Bay Trail can take us to the east, all the way to the Twin Creeks Sports Complex. So this is the second attemp. We park the car off W. Caribbean Dr and Bike from here. However, we took the wrong turn and ended up riding toward the bay. Saw a lot of birds. This is how one realizes "Birds of a feather flock together". Turn around at the 1st junction, back on where we started and found where we've missed. It is right behind the blackgate. 

Heading east, the trail is unpaved. But it is flat for he most parts. Much less people compared with the Mountain View section. Apparently Sunnyvale does not collect as much money as Mountain View does.

Finally we reached the Sports Complex. There are several baseball fields. Kids are playing. However there is no direct access from the trail to the complex. So we need to go around the Great Bayland Lake, along the service road next to Highway 237, to Sunnyvale Baylands Park, and then the Sports Complex is right next to the park.

Sunnyvale Baylands Park

Here is not too far from where we parked. Total distance is a bit short of 10km. A very nice ride!

Santa Cruz, Año Veuvo State Park

 

Today we go a bit further north off Santa Cruz on the Highway 1, a place called Año Veuvo State Park (Google Maps). The name "Año Nuevo" comes from the Spanish maritime explorer Sebastián Vizcaíno's expedition. The chaplain of the expedition, Father Antonio de la Ascension, sighted the point on January 3, 1603, which was just after the feast day of the Circumcision of Christ, a traditional New Year's Day celebration at the time. They named the point "Punta de Año Nuevo" (New Year's Point), and the name has stuck ever since.

Nowaday, the place is famous for viewing Elephant seals. Elephant seals are the largest among the seals family. According to the park rangers, Jan and Apr are the popular months. But we are here just to avoid the heat wave in the bay area today. Not really for the seals.

This location is almost right between Half Moon Bay and Santa Cruz. Since it is accessible only from Highway 1, I put it in the Santa Cruz category because we like Santa Cruz more.

The parking is $10, same for all state parks. After check-in at the Marine Education Center, we got this map (below). The trail is one way in and out. Less than 2.4miles one way.

In the beginning, it looks like Wilder Ranch (below).

But quickly we sae two seals on the beach. One big one 8~10 years old, and a juvenior next to it. Since we should keep at least 25 feet distance, this is almost the closest. It is huge, at least three times the size of a pig.

The above is at the south point. At the north point, there are three young seals in the distance. You would need to zoom-in all the way to see them playing on the beach.

As most areas are sand dunes (below), the trail is not paved. Only some sections have wooden platforms. You could get a lot of sands in your shoes.

We were the early visitos. Only 5 cars when we arrived. But the parking lot is full (~30 or more) when we are ready to leave. Not likely we would come again. Because it is kind of remote (from the city). But never say never. Maybe in the mating season.

Santa Cruz, south of Boardwalk

Beach Boarwalk

Last time, we were on the north side of the Boardwalk. The south side is also very interesting. After HWY 17 south to Santa Cruz, take Ocean St, then E Cliff Dr. You should be able to find a parking space on the cliff. Not a lot, but people come and go. A short walk north, you will see the railroad bridge and walkway that lead to the themepark (below). On Google Maps, set the destination as Cliff Drive Vista Point.

The houses on the waterfront are pretty. They are expensive though.

Continue south is Seabright Beach. We've been here before (link). To go further south, you need to back off from the beach, take Murray St cross the harbor, then 5th Ave and then back on E Cliff Dr. Two beaches on this path, Twin Lakes State Beach and Black's Beach.

In the weekend, the Live Oak Farmer's Market is opened. There are plenty of parking space. Check out pastry, flowers, produces etc. Continue south, we park around the 41th Ave or Opal Cliffs. This must be surfer's paradise (below).

I believe there are beginner's area and areas for the advanced surfers. Nice to watch from the cliff too.

Back home, check the house price in that area, a couple of millions!

地緣政治與中美博弈 by 邵維華

 

在圖書館看到這本書， 這是他2014出版 2020年中美終須一戰 之後的另一本書 ，2016年初版，不要去計較2020沒打起來， 而是去思考潛伏的火線是否還在 ，趨勢有沒有改變。

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📚 書籍介紹：邵維華《地緣政治與中美博弈》

• 作者：邵維華（筆名 YST，海天），數學博士，曾任美國航空與雷達專業工程師，以客觀理性著稱 (Google Play)。

作者簡介

• 出版時間：2017 年，由「如果出版」出版，全書約 472 頁(Google Play)。

• 核心觀點：

  • 以地緣政治視角剖析中美角力，認為未來 5 年為關鍵決定時期；

  • 主張美國正採「攻勢現實主義」戰略，試圖遏止中國崛起；

  • 涵蓋朝鮮半島、東海、南海、中東等戰略熱點，重點探討台灣與琉球可能爆發的大國衝突場景(Rakuten Kobo, 博客來)。

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🌏 地緣政治與中美博弈：現實背景 & 觀點

1. 地緣政治的核心理念

• 美國採取「重返亞洲」與「亞太再平衡」策略，其目的在於對沖中國在印太地區的影響力增長；

• 中國一方面強調「和平崛起」與「多極世界」，另一方面積極透過「一帶一路」、南海填海造陸等方式擴大區域布署。

2. 關鍵地緣戰略熱點

熱點區域	中美主要動作與風險焦點
南海 / 東海	美國持續派遣航行自由艦隊，中國則推動實質控制和填海基地建設
朝鮮半島	北韓核問題牽制美韓，中美在此棋局上角力；任何軍事衝突都可能升級成大國對峙
台海 / 琉球	書中預測若衝突爆發，最可能地點為琉球群島與台島周邊，美日台美聯盟力量與中國戰略佈局直接對決

書中提到俄烏、中東等衝突 都源自美國的世界戰略。這一部分是非常好的內容，值得細讀。

3. 美中博弈的戰略演算

• 美國依據「米爾斯海默」的攻勢現實主義，主張遏止中國崛起為維護其全球霸權；約翰·米爾斯海默（John J. Mearsheimer） 是當代最具影響力的國際關係學者之一，主張「攻勢現實主義（Offensive Realism）」，作者在第二章全章講他及他的人格特質 他的著作《大國政治的悲劇》（The Tragedy of Great Power Politics）及核心觀點。對於悲劇的詮釋則引用了My Fair Lady 中 Eliza 對 Higgins 說：

  "The difference between a lady and a flower girl is not how she behaves, but how she is treated. I shall always be a flower girl to Professor Higgins, because he always treats me as one. But I know I can be a lady to you, because you always treat me as one."

  "This is where the tragedy is." (註: 作者誤指Higgins 為Eliza的哥哥)

• 書中預言某些觀點主張：若未在前述 5 年內制衡中國，美國的相對優勢可能逐漸消退(博客來)。尤其是川普第二任 延續了很多其第一任的策略 頹勢難擋。

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📰 當代中美地緣政治對抗的新趨勢

• 科技與出口管控競爭：美國透過實體清單、限制晶片出口；中國則針對關鍵礦產與科技元件進行反制出口控制(csis.org)。川普第二任的關稅基本上還是一樣的策略。

• 學術與人才流動受限：地緣安全疑慮深化，美中間學者與學生交流縮減，多起拒簽與遣返案例顯現合作緊張(universityworldnews.com)。川普第二任變本加厲，打擊外籍學生多的學校，這對長期國力是大傷的。(新聞)

• 全球戰略布局與反制：美國通過美洲、歐盟盟友施壓，對抗中國在拉美、非洲等地的影響力擴張，中國則強化多邊平台與它國合作(thediplomat.com, theatlantic.com)。結果川普第二任連美洲、歐盟盟友都打，等於自掘墳墓。

• 氣候與氣候金融競爭：中美在全球氣候資金領導權角力中，資金承諾與策略資助成為新戰場應用型地緣政治工具(sipri.org)。川普第二任退出幾個全球組織，美國強權更加消退。

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✅ 總結觀點

• 邵維華透過地緣政治視角，將中美競合視為必然的歷史轉折，以亞洲為主要舞台，描述大國力量轉移的邏輯與時限。

• 當下中美競爭已進入新常態：科技脫鉤、出口戰、學術封鎖與全球戰略再平衡正不斷延伸地緣政治的戰線與層次。台灣要思考一味的往美國靠 除了熱臉貼冷屁股，還賠了夫人又折兵，川普認定你是民主黨的大金主，他有仇必報，是絕不手軟的。

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2030世界變局 華頓商學院趨勢剖析

 

這是 How today's biggest trends will collide and reshape the future of everything, by Mauro Guillen 的中文版 在YouTub上可以看到他的專訪(Link)

華頓商學院教授莫羅·吉列爾（Mauro F. Guillén）是研究全球趨勢並預測其如何交織融合的權威學者。他的著作《2030：當今最大的趨勢將如何發生碰撞並重塑未來》（2030: How Today's Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything），認為我們所熟知的世界已經結束，一個新的現實將在2030年之前到來。這是2020出版的，現在來看有些提早發生，有些是延遲的。

吉列爾的核心論點是「橫向思維」的重要性，他認為，你不能孤立地看待單一趨勢來理解未來。相反，他敦促讀者使用「周邊視覺」，觀察不同的力量如何相互作用並彼此放大，最終在2030年達到一個「臨界點」。

以下是他所指出的幾個關鍵趨勢，它們將會匯聚並改變世界：

• 人口結構的轉變：

  • 到2030年，祖父母的數量將超過孫輩。這個老齡化人口將成為一個主要的消費市場，忽視這群體的公司將錯失巨大的商機。

  • 亞洲(尤其是南亞)和撒哈拉以南的非洲 的中產階級數量將超過美國和歐洲的總和，這將推動新一波的全球消費浪潮。

• 經濟和社會變革：

  • 在現代歷史上，全球經濟將首次由非西方國家的消費者來驅動。尤其是中國及(東)南亞。

  • 女性擁有的全球財富將超過男性。這將導致消費習慣的改變，更多的資金將流向教育、醫療保健和保險等領域。

  • 世界將從「所有權」模式轉向「共享經濟」。

• 科技革命：

  • 機器人的數量將超過工人，電腦的數量將超過人類大腦。這種自動化將衝擊傳統工作，並催生對新技能和再培訓的需求。這就是他所說 手機比馬桶還多 一事。

  • 加密貨幣和其他數位資產的興起，將使貨幣的種類比國家的數量更多，這將挑戰傳統的銀行和貨幣體系。這就是他所說 貨幣種類比國家多 一事。

吉列爾認為，這些趨勢已經在發展中，並且正被 COVID-19 大流行等事件所加速。他為領導者和個人提供了一個應對這些變化的路線圖，強調需要具備適應性、創新精神，並勇於擁抱這個新現實所帶來的機會。

華頓商學院常有這一類的Forum。熟悉世界的趨勢 不見得一定是要預得先機，不要跟趨勢對幹倒是真的。就好像中國的崛起是歷史的必然，美國採取的反制，或許會延遲，但改變不了趨勢的本體。

「橫向思維」其中的一個案例是，一區停電一個月，出生率增加了20%，這大概是明鏡黨解決台灣生育率低下的方法。

2030世界未來報告書

 

在圖書館看到韓國未來學家朴英淑與「千禧年計畫」執行長傑羅姆．格倫（Jerome C. Glenn）合著的《2030年世界未來報告書》。這本書主要探討以下七個領域的未來趨勢：

1. 區塊鏈革命： 區塊鏈技術將改變商業、醫療、金融、供應鏈、貨幣、不動產、能源等各個領域，去中心化將重塑社會運作模式。書中提到的 Meta (Facebook) 的加密貨幣項目 Libra 已經在2022年1月正式宣告終止了。諷刺的是美國國會在 2025年6月 通過了備受矚目的《天才法案》（GENIUS Act），總統川普也在 7月18日 簽署了這項法案，正式使其成為法律。這標誌著美國首次在聯邦層面為數位穩定幣建立了明確的監管框架。一個重要的概念是區塊鏈跟穩定幣是兩件事，區塊鏈是trust的技術保障，穩定幣是作為交易的物質保障。

2. 人工智慧： AI將全面進化並融入日常生活，人類將進入與AI協作的「後人類時代」。書中提到Google DeepMind。在2023年4月，Google 將旗下的兩個頂尖 AI 團隊——DeepMind 和 Google Brain——合併，成立了「Google DeepMind」。在2024年和2025年持續將更多的 AI 相關團隊（如 Gemini App 的開發團隊、AI Studio 等）整合到 Google DeepMind 旗下，使得整個組織結構更加集中，目標更明確。DeepMind 目前的核心任務之一，就是主導 Google 最強大的 AI 模型 Gemini 的開發。書中也提到China的Alibaba 百度 Tencent 也大量投入，所以DeepSeek 真的不是橫空出世。

3. 創新技術融合： 智慧城市將蓬勃發展，物聯網、5G等技術的融合將帶來超便利的日常生活。書中提到VR 、自駕、 無人機、 機器人、 AR 都是現在熱門的題目，沒有技術的成熟，是長不出這些東西的。

4. 生技革命： 實驗室人造肉、基因編輯、抗老化藥物等技術將改變人類的健康、食物與壽命。這部分的發展似乎較慢，到目前沒看到desinger baby(訂製寶貝)!

5. 能源革命： 太陽能等再生能源(尤其是Fusion))的生產成本將大幅下降，能源自主生產將成為可能，傳統石化燃料將逐漸被淘汰。這部分的發展出奇的慢，有些政府大搞反核，傳統石化燃料的使用不減反增。書中提到的一些公司有空再來看一看。

6. 健康管理革命： 隨著科技進步，人類的壽命將延長，預防性醫療和個人化健康管理將成為主流。

7. 全球性的挑戰： 面對這些巨大的變革，國際社會將面臨許多挑戰，需要新的對策來應對。這一章集合了15個項目，有點沒頭緒。

結論

在2025來看2020寫的是蠻有意義的，算期中檢討吧。序言提到 DAC - direct air capture. 從空氣中取水 technology innovation確實會引起巨大的變革的。我相信大企業及政府也有做針對2035的預測，有機會再找找看。

書中提到的一些能源公司

Fervo energy - a pioneering startup in next-generation geothermal energy

QuantumScape (NYSE: QS) is a U.S.-based pioneer in solid-state lithium-metal battery technology, headquartered in San Jose, CA. Stock reached $132 in 2021. Now $8.09.

CarbonCure specializes in carbon utilization technologies that embed captured CO₂ into concrete via mineralization during mixing.

Pivot Bio, founded in Berkeley, CA (2011), engineers genetically modified microbes to fix atmospheric nitrogen directly in crop roots—reducing reliance on traditional synthetic nitrogen fertilizer.

Zero mass water (now SOURCE Global, PBC)—a company transforming air and sunlight into potable water via its SOURCE® Hydropanel technology.

Form Energy founded in 2017 and headquartered in Somerville, Massachusetts, is developing a cost-effective iron‑air battery system for multi‑day grid energy storage. Its founders include former Tesla battery lead Mateo Jaramillo and MIT professor Yet‑Ming Chiang.

Quidnet Energy has developed Geomechanical Pumped Storage (GPS)—a form of closed‑loop energy storage that stores energy by injecting water into underground rock formations under pressure. When electricity is needed, the pressurized water is released to drive a turbine and return to the surface pond for reuse.